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Many risk managers, brokers, and insurers size up cargo theft exposure largely the way they size up any risk: by looking at loss data estimates and claims history. When it comes to cargo theft, that instinct is worth reconsidering.
Start with the data itself. Ask five people what cargo theft costs the U.S. annually, and you’ll likely get five different answers, ranging from $725 million[1] to $15–35 billion[2]. This is a sign that the figures are measuring different things entirely. Some track reported thefts, while others only track insured losses. An insurer considers only theft that reaches its own portfolio as a claim, but many companies retain substantial risk through large deductibles or self-insured retentions. A company with a $10 million retention, for example, wouldn’t count its first $10 million in theft losses as insured, even though the loss happened. That gap alone should raise doubts about any total built from insured-loss data.
Organizations’ own claims data also has a structural limit: a claim only exists after a loss has been discovered, investigated, and filed, often long after the theft occurred. Meanwhile, theft threats are constantly evolving. Cargo theft has gone digital and moved upstream, with criminals exploiting shipment data and supply chain complexity before goods ever reach a truck or a port.
In this environment, accurately assessing risk requires going beyond looking at claims data and loss history estimates. A data-driven approach to underwriting should connect historical experience with current intelligence about commodities, routes, counterparties, security practices, and emerging theft patterns. That broader view can help insurers, brokers, and insureds identify vulnerabilities before they become claims.
At MSIG USA, we increasingly think about cargo risk through that wider lens: understanding not just the shipment being insured, but the ecosystem surrounding it and how exposures can change over time.
Theft Tactics and Targets Have Evolved with Technology
Cargo theft exposure has expanded well beyond physical break-ins. Armed with inside information like digital shipping data, criminal networks can now steal goods at multiple points in the supply chain. Unauthorized pickups, for instance, are committed at plants, warehouses, and ports: a criminal who knows a $1 million load of lobsters came off a ship in Long Beach can now easily forge authentic-looking documents saying they are authorized to collect it.
Criminal networks also use stolen data to target high-value commodities, and those targets tend to rotate every six months. In 2025, average cargo theft value increased 36%. The sharpest increases were in thefts of metal (77%), and food and beverages (47%).1
In today’s interconnected, digitalized supply chains, every handoff, contract, or information exchange is a potential point of failure.
Start With the Ecosystem, Not the Shipment
Simply evaluating claims history and individual shipments won’t reveal exposures that develop upstream—mapping the entire transportation ecosystem will.
This is where a more consultative underwriting approach can make a meaningful difference. At MSIG USA, we believe specialty underwriting should help clients and brokers better understand the risks within an operation, not simply evaluate what has already gone wrong. For cargo, that means looking across the full journey and identifying where concentrations, counterparties, information access, routes, and security practices could create vulnerabilities.
To help prevent losses, underwriters want to see that every potential failure point from direct contractors to truck stops has been worked through:
- Know who’s actually handling the freight. A shipment often passes through several layers of subcontractors beyond the freight carrier, and each layer adds risk you can’t see. Map who contractors subcontract to, and who those subcontractors use in turn. Revisit that map regularly as relationships change.
- Limit who can see shipping data. Data about a shipment — what it is, where it’s headed, when it arrives — often passes through more hands than most organizations realize: dispatchers, warehouse staff, subcontractors, tracking platforms. Knowing and limiting who has access keeps inside information out of the wrong hands.
- Build coverage around specific commodities and routes. Standard coverage is broad by default. What you’re shipping and where it’s headed determines your actual risk. High-value or easily resold goods require different mitigation tactics from other goods. Track loss patterns for specific commodities and routes, know what the current hot-ticket items are, and structure coverage around that data rather than a generic operation’s estimated exposures.
- Require secured stops and layered security measures. Requiring carriers to use secure truck stops addresses an all-too-common scenario: a driver stops for lunch and returns to find his trailer is missing. GPS tracking, cameras, and electronic locks add another layer of protection — but sophisticated criminals can defeat digital devices alone, so technology should be one part of a broader physical security strategy.
Reassess Regularly
Cargo theft isn’t static. The tactics, targets, and routes will keep shifting. Neither risk management nor underwriting can afford to be static either.
Effective risk management requires routinely assessing the threat landscape and the full transportation ecosystem. For insurers, that means combining data with specialized underwriting expertise and an ongoing understanding of how an insured’s business operates. For risk managers and brokers, it means treating the insurance relationship as another source of risk insight, not simply a mechanism for transferring losses.
That is ultimately where a data-driven specialty insurance approach adds value: using what has happened to better understand what could happen next, then working together to reduce the likelihood and impact of the next loss. &
[1] Verisk “2025 Supply Chain Risk Trends,” January 2026.
[2] U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “Operation Boiling Point,” March 2026.
The post What Cargo Theft Figures Don’t Show: Today’s Evolving Exposures appeared first on Risk & Insurance.
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đź“° This article is sourced from a trusted insurance industry publication. SecureLife Insurance shares this for informational purposes only. Always consult a licensed advisor for personalized guidance.